When it comes to the risk of default, Moody’s found that during COVID-19, American businesses had a 7.8 percent chance of defaulting. This is compared to a low of 4 percent in 2021, but lower than the current 9.2 percent risk of default, according to a March 2025 report by the rating agency.

Also known as cash flow available for debt service, CFADS determines how much cash is available to service debt obligations. It looks at different cash inflows/outflows to show both internal (owners and managers) and external audiences (investors) how efficient (or not) a business is in its ability to produce cash flows and manage its debts without defaulting.

While one method businesses use is balancing client sales, it is also common to look at various accounting entries, including Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA). The results of CFADS are often used by financial analysts when creating coverage ratios, including the project life coverage ratio (PLCR), the debt service coverage ratio (DSCR), and the loan life coverage ratio (LLCR). It can sometimes take the place of EBITDA in certain circumstances. It’s important to note that the three coverage ratios show how well a plan is able to service and not default on debt throughout the entire project’s period.

For example, the DSCR = CFADS / Scheduled Debt Service (Interest + Principal Obligations)

Once this is calculated based on the company’s project specifications, if the result is greater than 1, then it signifies and gives greater confidence to internal and external audiences that the company will be able to meet its milestones and final payments.

The most efficient formula for calculating CFADS is as follows:

EBITDA – Taxes – Positive or Negative Result of Working Capital – Capital Expenditures for Maintenance Only

$200,000 (EBITDA) – $30,000 (Taxes) + $20,000 (assuming there’s a negative $20,000 change in working capital) – $40,000 (assuming the capital expenditure investing in maintenance)

CFADS = $150,000

Sometimes the calculation includes dividends, which need to be factored into the calculation. This example assumes it is not part of the calculation.

Interpreting Results

It’s important to understand that a more detailed analysis helps all audiences determine if the projected cash flow is available for different claimants of the business. While most of the calculations are done via the waterfall model, it’s important to analyze it based upon senior and junior debt, along with equity. If a company declares bankruptcy, senior debt holders are the first priority to be made whole (or as whole as possible, depending on the circumstances). Senior debt is collateralized or secured with company assets that are sold off during bankruptcy. From there, junior debt holders are next in line, followed by convertible note holders, then preferred stockholders, and finally common stockholders.

While this calculation is only one part of the way internal and external stakeholders can measure a company’s financial health, with the chance of more firms defaulting on debt, it’s another tool in a financial analyst’s toolbox.

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